CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-14T10:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-14T10:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30856/-1
CME Note: Wide CME seen to the NE in all coronagraphs (STEREO A gets first visible frame). Source is an unnumbered region of the solar disk, centered around N23E35. Starting around 2024-05-14T09:07Z, field line movement is observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 alongside a diagonal region of light dimming spanning approximately N40E60 -> N15E30 across that center point. A distinct post-eruptive arcade forms around 2024-05-14T10:47Z across SDO AIA 131/171/193/211. Potential arrival signature is characterized by an initial Bt increase from 6nT->14nT, eventually increasing to almost 17nT at 2024-05-17T14:04Z. There is a jump in solar wind speed from 400 to 490 km/s and an increase in ion density. Bz stays negative for almost one day. Around 21Z there is a drop in density, followed by a drop in ion density, possibly indicating a flux rope. However, this arrival signature could also be from 2024-05-15T08:36Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-17T12:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-18T02:00Z (-8.83h, +11.55h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/05/14 10:08Z Plane of Sky 1: 17:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction Plane of Sky 2: 23:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction POS Difference: 6:40 POS Midpoint: 20:20Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:12 Numeric View/Impact Type: 0 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.61 Travel Time: ~8.61 * 10:12 = 87:52 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-18T02:00Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5 Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/14 22:53ZLead Time: 61.75 hour(s)
Difference: -13.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-05-14T22:55Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement